梅新育：正视防范一带一路上的伊斯兰风险

（中文原稿）

在2012年写作、2013年刊发的《新兴市场经济体崛起的冷观察》（《学术前沿》2013-9/下）一文中，我判断：“未来10—20年间，经济风险与萧条将放大、引爆新兴市场本已存在的众多社会不稳定因素，阶级、民族、宗教、地域之间的矛盾将集中迸发，原来经济景气时期尚可容忍的问题彼时将显得无法容忍，爆发政治动乱、游行示威、政变、内战和外战的风险上升，腐败、民族宗教矛盾、收入分配失衡、失业、官民冲突等等都可能成为引燃冲突的导火索。其它条件相同，高度依赖初级产品行业和伊斯兰教传统浓厚的国家和地区风险更大，非洲、拉美和中东伊斯兰国家将是未来10—20年新兴市场社会震荡与动乱的主要风险区。”将近3年来，从乌克兰动乱、伊斯兰国异军突起、也门战争、博科圣地不断膨胀、拉美政治动荡露头升级直至土耳其事变，事实已经验证了上述判断。由于社会传统和经济等多方面根源，穆斯林国家与非穆斯林国家的穆斯林群体蕴藏着格外巨大的社会动乱与溢出风险，“伊斯兰风险”是未来一二十年世界最大政治性风险之一。

在我国的一带一路计划中，“伊斯兰风险”同样是最大政治性风险之一，甚至可能更加突出。按照最广义的定义，“一带一路”涉及64个国家，其中有33个穆斯林国家，占总数逾半；在剩下的31个非穆斯林国家中，有10个国家已经存在突出的穆斯林动乱及暴恐袭击风险，一个国家与穆斯林国家处于战争状态，一个国家内部的穆斯林动乱及暴恐袭击风险可能激活；合计有44个国家存在现实的“伊斯兰风险”，占“一带一路”国家总数的69%，一个国家存在潜在的“伊斯兰风险”。有些穆斯林国家的风险相当突出。如巴基斯坦，这个国家在中国官方层面获得了“全天候友谊”、“巴铁”、“友谊比山高比海深”等称呼赞誉，但又是一个伊斯兰极端主义问题严重的国家，2012、2013两年，巴基斯坦暴恐活动死亡11590人，其中平民6008人，军警1408人，武装分子4174人。[1]

自助者人恒助之。作为奉行“不干涉别国内政”原则的国家，我们希望穆斯林国家摆脱动乱、走向和平繁荣，但我们没有帮助他们摆脱动乱的义务，我们能做的只能 是在他们自力初步摆脱动乱之后，通过平等互利的经贸合作为他们实现持续的和平繁荣创造尽可能良好的环境、夯实基础，我们在应对风险时需要充分考虑风险收益，实现风险最小化而收益最大化。

有鉴于此，面对“一带一路”的“伊斯兰风险”，我们应对的原则应当是事前安排为主，事后措施为辅；以企业自救措施为主，政府保证、救援机制为辅；防范外敌，也要防范内奸。所谓“事前安排为主，事后措施为辅”，指的是我国在完善跨国经营政治性风险应对体系时，最重要的是通过事前的主动安排（包括合理规划布局）降低遭遇“伊斯兰风险”等政治性风险的概率，其次才是在遭遇政治性风险之后通过补偿、索赔、救援之类被动的事后措施来化解。只有这样，才能最大限度地降低我国应对跨国经营政治性风险的成本。

为了应对包括“伊斯兰风险”在内的政治性风险，我国需要适度扩大政府在海外的救援和政策性出口信用保险、海外投资保险工具覆盖面，但指望海外救援乃至武力干预、政策性出口信用保险和海外投资保险覆盖全部政治性风险是不现实的，既超出了国力的承担能力，又有激励企业的道德风险之虞。

根据以上原则，在应对一带一路伊斯兰风险时，组织华人保安公司、必要时的武力救援与干预等等直接措施固然必不可少，但都是迫不得已的最后选择，最重要的还是从以下几个方面着手：

从源头上降低政治性风险的发生概率，包括合理布局一带一路规划，适度开放国内舆论报道、讨论伊斯兰风险，实施中立友好策略，采取正确的跨国经营策略。特别是适度开放国内舆论报道、讨论伊斯兰国家存在的腐败、社会动乱、暴恐横行、仇视“异教徒”等负面问题，以免误导国内民众步入险地。湖北青年只知道中巴关系友好而单人骑自行车游览暴恐横行的巴基斯坦北部，结果被抓为人质，这样的悲剧不能重演了。

加快组织海外华人商会，借助集体力量增强海外华商抵御政治性风险的能力。

完善双边投资保护机制。

完善政策性出口信用保险和海外投资保险工具。

（2016.12.13，仅代表个人意见）

《环球时报》英文版2016年12月15日刊发稿

Preventing Islamic risk on ‘Belt and Road’

By Mei Xinyu

Source：Global Times

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1023876.shtml；

Published: 2016/12/15

A few years ago, I predicted that for the next 10 to 20 years,economic recession will worsen and cause major social instabilityin emerging countries. Africa, Latin America and Middle EastIslamic countries will be the prime source of this upheaval andturmoil. For nearly three years, the Ukrainian crisis, theemergence of the Islamic State, the Yemen civil war and 2016Turkish coup attempt have proved my prediction. In the next 10 to20 years, 'Islamic risk' will be one of the world's biggestpolitical risks.

For China's 'One Belt, One Road' (OBOR) initiative, Islamic risk isalso a prominent political danger. According to the broadestdefinition, OBOR involves 64 countries, 33 of which are Muslimcountries, accounting for more than half the total.

Among the remaining 31 non-Muslim countries, 10 countries haveobvious existing Muslim unrest and are at risk of terror attacks. In total, 44 countries have Islamic risk, making up 69percent of the total number of countries along OBOR.

For example, Pakistan, China's iron-core brother, is a country withserious Islamic extremism. From 2012 to 2013, violent terroristincidents in Pakistan caused 11,590 deaths, which included 6,008civilians, 1,408 policemen and 4,174 militants.

As a country pursuing a policy of non-interference in the internalaffairs of other countries, China has no obligations to get themout of the social upheavals. What China can do is to create afavorable environment for their peaceful development through equaltrade after they walk out of turbulence. When promoting OBOR, Chinashould fully consider risk returns, and try to maximize returnswhile minimizing risk.

In view of Islamic risk, China ought to give priority topre-arrangements, supplemented by measures afterward. Chineseenterprises in Muslim countries should put self-help measuresfirst, while making government guarantees and rescue mechanisms subsidiary. Relying on these tacticsmeans that active arrangements are vital for reducing Islamic riskduring the process of perfecting a transnational operationpolitical risk-response system. Only in this way can China minimizethe cost of political risks in transnational management.

In addition, the Chinese government should modestly promoteoverseas aid, and expand policy-oriented export credit insuranceand overseas investment insurance. However, expecting the aid toeliminate all political risks is unrealistic, which is beyond theaffordability of Chinese national strength and may lead to moralhazard for enterprises.

According to the above principles, China can take measures such asorganizing Chinese security companies, and carrying out rescues andintervention when necessary. Nevertheless, what China should domost is as follows.

The probability of political risks should be reduced byappropriately arranging OBOR, moderately relaxing restrictions on media reports, discussing Islamic risk, implementingneutral and friendly policies, and taking appropriate internationaloperations strategies.

Especially, a more open media environment and more discussionsabout corruption problems, social unrest, rampant violence andother negative issues in Islamic countries can prevent Chinesepeople from entering dangerous places.

Moreover, it is advised to speed up the organization of overseasChinese chambers of commerce, so as to strengthen overseasmerchants' ability to resist political risks. In addition, Chinashould improve bilateral investment-protection mechanisms andupgrade policy-oriented export credit insurance and foreigninvestment insurance.

[1] 引自我国前驻印度总领事毛四维整理的统计数据。